Monsoons Climate Change Assessment

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Monsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes their primary drivers, projected future changes, key physical processes, discuss challenges present modeling outlooks. Continued warming urbanization over century already caused significant rise in intensity frequency extreme events all regions (high confidence). Observed mean vary by region with decadal variations. Northern Hemisphere land as whole declined from 1950 to 1980 rebounded after 1980s, due competing influences internal climate variability radiative forcing greenhouse gases aerosol confidence); however, it remains challenge quantify relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better precipitation CMIP5 models, but common biases large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that will increase, alongside an increasing risk drought some regions. Also, increase South Asia East confidence) northern Africa (medium confidence), decrease North America, be unchanged Southern Hemisphere. Over Asian–Australian region, daily scales. rainy season likely lengthened late retreat (especially Asia), shortened delayed onset.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1520-0477', '0003-0007']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-19-0335.1